ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review September 10-16

With the peak of coho season now behind us, Alaska coho landings for the year so far have reached 2.03 million fish as of week 38 (September 10-16, 2023). This figure represents a 31% increase compared to 1.55 million fish that were landed last year in the same timeframe. However, it falls approximately 24% below the five-year average of 2.69 million fish.

Notably, the Copper River district is experiencing much higher landings compared to the previous year in recent weeks...

The Retail Rundown: Fall-ing into Seasonal Trends

It’s the end of an era…or at least, a season. Pumpkin everything has already been underway for a couple of weeks and the fall equinox officially arrives on Saturday, September 23^rd.

Grocers are increasingly highlighting autumn retail trends consistent with indoor oven cooking, resulting in shifting feature volume from grilling cuts to cooler-weather items like roasts.

Beef roasts have seen a notable uptick in feature volume since the beginning of the month, currently claiming 22% of total beef ads. Comparatively, the roast category accounted for 14% of beef ads...

ANALYSIS: Frozen Mahi – The 2023-2024 Season Outlook

The upcoming Mahi fishing season for 2023-2024 in Central and South America is set to begin, as it traditionally does during the first week of October each year. Leading up to the start of this new season, there's a significant amount of anticipation and speculation among fishermen, processors, importers, and traders involved in the wild fishery. These speculations revolve around factors such as water temperatures, market demand, and the resulting price fluctuations, which are heavily influenced by catch volumes. Moreover, the unpredictability intensifies when... 

ANALYSIS: Fresh Salmon Fillet Imports Up Almost 11 Percent YTD

The fresh farmed salmon fillet market continues to see massive volumes come into the U.S. market. Fresh fillets year-to-date are up almost 11 percent, up 10.9 percent through July 2023. These increases can be attributed to both Chile, the main driver in the category with a 74 percent market share, and a combination of Norway and the Faroe Islands who together hold almost a 20 percent market share. Fresh fillets out of Chile are up 11.8 percent, Norway is up...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Shifts in September

From back-to-school shopping to the return of NFL season, September ushers in a flurry of buying occasions for the retail sector as seasonal shifts in consumer buying behaviors begin to take hold. 

Purchases for school lunches, snacks, and extracurricular activities lift sales at the deli counter and prepared and frozen foods sections of the grocery store. Last week, the lunchmeat category earned $95.9 million in total sales, up from $67.4 million the week prior. Roasted turkey continued to drive deli service sales and retailed at $10.64 discounted, up 79 cents from...

ANALYSIS: EU Shrimp Imports from Argentina Down 21% YOY in July

Export numbers of frozen shrimp from Argentina into the EU are now available in Global Trade Tracker for July 2023.

Around 184,700 metric tons of warm water shrimps were imported by the EU in the first half of 2023, and Argentina is the third supplying country, with 8.3% share.

In July alone, 7,646 metric tons of muelleri shrimp were imported into the EU, a 21 percent drop since July 2022 and 30 percent compared to July 2021. However, when looking...

ANALYSIS: Crab Meat: A Few Things to Watch

Through most of 2023, the crab meat market has seen imports well below the 3-year average. But as of June 2023, and somewhat in May of 2023, we are starting to see that trend shift.

With months of an active or high demand for product, it looks as though imports may be starting to catch up as levels start to climb above the 3-year average. Due to the lag time between where blue and red swimming crab meat is caught and...

The Retail Rundown: Looking Towards Labor Day

Labor Day weekend is drawing near and grocers are busy securing orders for the final major retail buying occasion of the summer season. For this week's retail rundown, we'll take a look at wholesale price action and how it may influence holiday promotions at retail.

In the wholesale beef market, Urner Barry's Choice beef cutout has advanced by nearly 4% so far in August following a correction from seasonal all-time highs in mid-June and throughout July. The Choice cutout is currently down about 6.5% from its summer peak but is nearly 16%...

ANALYSIS: Uncertainties Within The Scallop Market

The 2023-2024 Atlantic sea scallop season had pressures mounting even before the fishery opened on April 1. With another consecutive year of fallen quota announcements, the estimated 25 million pounds of scallops landed in 2023 is a 26.5 percent retreat from the 2022 projection of 34 million pounds and a notable 60 percent drop from the 2019 projection of 62.5 million pounds just four years prior.

With the anticipated fall in seasonal landings, firm prices and premiums throughout the season were expected. However, a pullback on demand, as seen across seafood...

ANALYSIS: Tilapia Imports, Prices Retreat 

June 2023 imports for frozen tilapia fillets were recorded at 16.9 million pounds, falling below both the previous 3-year (21.6 million lbs.) and 10-year (23.9 million lbs.) averages for the month of June; down 22.0 percent and 29.4 percent respectively.

June imports adjusted 7.6 percent lower than the previous month while retreating 26.3 percent lower than the June 2022 volume of 22.9 million pounds. On a year-to-date basis imports are tracking 10.0 percent below 2022 totals of the same January through June time frame...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Shrimp Imports in June Mark 12-Month Decline

U.S. shrimp imports fell steeper than expected in data released Tuesday. This is the twelfth straight month of declines, helping trim positions after record years. June 2023 imports were 136.278 million pounds, or nearly 20 percent below last year’s 169.422 million pounds. The year-to-date figure is now down almost 18 percent at 794.601 million pounds.

The big five continued to slump year-over-year. India (-26.2%), Ecuador (-13.1%), Indonesia (-3.7%), Vietnam (-22.9%), and Thailand (-31.0) were all lower...

The Retail Rundown: The August Outlook

August is here and the end to the dog days of summer is in sight—a much-needed pick me up for the protein industry following what is typically a sluggish period for sales post-July 4th.

Grocers are gearing up for Labor Day weekend, roughly four weeks out and the first major retail buying occasion since Independence Day. In the meantime, circulars are already showcasing back-to-school staples including breakfast items and sandwich ingredients as some students begin to return to the classrooms. 

According to the latest Circana data for the week...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review July 16-22

Sockeye continues to be the lead story in wild salmon this week with the recently announced price to fishermen significantly less than last year’s prices. While sockeye landings typically have begun their decline by this point, statistical week 29 landings have been lower compared to both 2022 and the five-year average. Some market participants report reduced effort out of Bristol Bay due to the lower price set by the processors, as well as poor weather conditions hampering fishing. Not all areas are...

The Retail Rundown: Battle of the Burgers

A crowd favorite with endless topping combinations, summertime grilling often feels incomplete without burgers. From traditional beef patties to plant-based alternatives, consumers of all tastes and budgets can find plentiful options at the grocery store. For this week's rundown, we'll take a look at how the various retail burger options stacked up against one another. 

Circana data showed that 78-84% lean ground beef averaged $4.59 discounted in the week ending July 9, up 25 cents from the week prior and above $4.40 last year. As a whole, ground beef...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review For July 2-8

Sockeye totals out of Alaska so far in 2023 year-to-date (YTD) are 24.09 million fish through July 8 (statistical week 27). It's up 24% from the five-year average of 19.37 million fish, but a decrease of 12% off last year’s record-breaking run, which was 27.48 million YTD. While talk about the possibility of the run coming up short of the forecasted...

The Retail Rundown: How Did This Year's July 4th Protein Sales Perform? 

This year's July 4th celebration boosted protein sales across the board as consumers commemorated the final holiday of the summer with cookouts and gatherings. For this week's rundown, we'll take a look at how the various proteins performed at retail in the lead-up to Independence Day.  

The latest Circana data indicated that total beef sales volume swelled to $214.9 million during the week ended July 2, accelerated by late-minute buying for the holiday. This was up 73.3% from the week prior and 27.8% more the same week...

The Retail Rundown: Checking on Chicken; Latest Inflation Reading

For more than thirty years, the National Chicken Council (NCC) has partnered with major U.S. chicken producers to promote chicken sales this month—leading to September being crowned as National Chicken Month.   

In what was historically regarded as a slow period for poultry sales following the conclusion of summer grilling, increased in-store promotions and ad campaigns including chicken-centric recipes have helped extend the robust summer consumption season into September since the program's inception in 1989.

The number of chicken items found in advertisements this week based on Urner Barry's... 

ANALYSIS: Assessing Some Shifts in EU Shrimp Demand

There is a slight degree of positivity in the warm-water shrimp market, illustrated last week by the small uptick in the U.S. import figures published last week by the US Census office. After a 12-month decline, U.S. trade in improved by 2.7% since last year for the month of July, at 76,450 metric tons against 74,471 MT last year.

The EU trade figures for July are not available yet, but the CNA statistical office registered a 19.7% increase from Ecuadorian exports to Europe. In H1 2023, Spain...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Shrimp Imports Show First Gain in a Year

In data released Wednesday, and for the first time in over a year, U.S. shrimp imports were marginally higher compared to year-earlier levels. While there has been talk that imports might reverse soon, it may come as a bit of a surprise that they did prior to the fall months as many thought. The 152.902 million pounds edged 2.7 percent above last July’s 148.941 million pounds.

It was really a mixed bag when it comes to gainers and losers from the top trade partners. India (+12.8%)...

ANALYSIS: Haddock Imports Down, Pricing Remains at 52-week Low

Haddock imports remain below the 3-year average throughout all of 2023 through June of this year. All product forms — frozen fillets, frozen whole fish and frozen fillet blocks — have seen decreases in volume. Therefore, almost all countries of origin have seen decreases. China is down 51.7 percent on frozen fillets; Norway down 50.3 percent on frozen fillets and down 44 percent on frozen whole fish; and Iceland is down 36.6 percent on frozen fillets. One area we are seeing increases is in the Faroe Islands...

The Retail Rundown: 2023 Labor Day Feature Rundown

In the final push before Labor Day weekend, grocers are touting grilling items and party staples as consumers celebrate the last big summer occasion of the season.

Pork and seafood features each account for about 26% of total retail buying opportunities this week. Beef closely follows with 25.6% of feature volume while chicken comes in with 18% of ad space. Egg feature volume saw a noticeable slowdown to 0.7% this week, down from 3.2% the week prior and 4.1% two weeks back.

Ribs and bacon account for the bulk of pork's feature...

ANALYSIS: Wild Salmon Week in Review August 13-19

As the 2023 fresh sockeye season winds down, prices have remained relatively stable, mirroring the patterns observed in previous years at the end of the season. Currently, the average price for 4-6 fresh H&G (headed and gutted) sockeye stands at $4.38 per pound. This price is below both last year’s numbers and the five-year average, showing a decrease of 12.4% and 11.5% respectively.

Another strong year of landings bolstering supply along with a fair to quiet demand saw pricing hit its lowest levels for this...

ANALYSIS: Larger Snow Crab Volumes Light; Retail Remains Active

8-and-10 up snow crab continue to move higher this week while 5-8s remain steady at listed levels. As the fishing season nears its close after multiple extensions in Newfoundland, a theme has held true since the season began—larger crab is tight.

We see evidence of this as 8-up snow crab out of both Newfoundland and the Gulf continue to adjust higher and the price difference between 5-8s and 8-up crab continue to grow. Although not the...

The Retail Rundown: Egg-celerated Features Boost Spending

School is already in session for some students, giving consumers a sense of urgency to embark on one last vacation before August wraps. For the retail grocery sector, the lead-up to September will be used to promote back-to-school shopping along with grilling must-haves for Labor Day weekend. 

Last-minute getaways support foodservice spending as consumers flock to tourist destinations and dine out. For grocers, back-to-school shopping typically drives store traffic as families restock on breakfast, lunch, and snack items. Eggs, a quintessential breakfast staple, have seen...

ANALYSIS: Fresh Salmon Imports Up Almost 10 Percent Year-To-Date

Fresh farmed salmon fillets continued to dominate in June when it came to volume. Through the first half of the year the market is just shy of 10 percent higher year-to-date, at 9.8 percent over last year. On a month-to-month basis June was virtually the same as May, just slightly higher, up 0.5 percent. On a year-over-year basis, June 2023 is 3.8 percent higher than June 2022.

Looking at the seasonal behavior of monthly imports, all of 2023 is well above the...

The Retail Rundown: Most Protein Indices Are Below Last Year

A breakdown of this week's retail buying opportunities shows that seafood features make up about 30% of total protein ad volume this week, while beef claims about 25%. Pork follows with 18.2%, down about two points from the week prior. Chicken features account for 16.1% of total protein ads, compared to 17.5% last year. Boosted by back-to-school buying, egg feature volume more than doubled from the week prior to 7.2%.

For this week's retail rundown, we'll take a look at how the various protein indices are performing in...

ANALYSIS: Fresh and Frozen Tilapia Pricing Gap Widens

A notable shift is taking place within the tilapia market, where the pricing gap between frozen tilapia fillets from China and fresh tilapia fillets from Central and South America is expanding.

The market for frozen tilapia fillets imported from China are witnessing a downturn as discounted wholesale prices emerge within the U.S. Key market participants report that contributing factors include fallen demand due to consumer inflation fatigue, high cold storage rates, as well as overall ample supply in the global market due...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Features Swim to the Top

Closing out the last full week of July, seafood features make up 32.7% of total protein ad volume, marking the fourth consecutive week that they have claimed the top spot. Beef comes in second with 25.4% of retail buying opportunities. Pork takes third with 21%, followed by chicken at 16.6%. Eggs claim 2.6% of total ad space, down from 3.2% last week.

Fresh/frozen fillets account for the bulk of seafood feature volume, with swai fillets making up 24.6%. According to the latest IRI data, fresh swai averaged $4.82 discounted last week, while its frozen counterpart was featured at $5.43 discounted...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Chilean Salmon Market Sees Bump Off Bottom

The Chilean farmed fresh fillet market has experienced a bump up off the 52-week lows seen the first week of July. The market has ticked higher the past two weeks and is sitting just below the 5-year average. In comparison to last year at the same time, the market is down $1.00 or 16.1 percent.

The market is currently steady...

ANALYSIS: Shrimp Less Volatile Than Other Proteins

Volatility provides a measure of price uncertainty in commodity markets and measures the degree of variation of price levels. Since price reflects supply and demand, high levels of volatility usually mean different supply and/or demand factors are influencing movements. These sharp fluctuations can create challenges to run any business.

While traders may welcome this, typical retail and foodservice buyers usually like a more stable pricing environment — mainly because of mitigating swings in consumer inflation and less costs for risk management...